# NorthMark Streak Backtest — Week 18
*No more holding cap. The best alpha in the dataset shows up at week 15, not week 12.*
Eighteen weeks of live data. Starting this week, the backtest no longer has a fixed holding limit — every portfolio is now tracked for as long as the dataset allows, currently up to 15 weeks for the earliest entries.
With that change, searching across every holding period rather than a fixed 12-week mark reveals three portfolios that outperform anything seen so far.
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## The Top 3 Portfolios — Best Alpha at Any Holding Period
*(See attached image — Top 3 Portfolios)*
### #1 — Top 10 · Streak 5 · Entry March 5, 2026 · Held 15 weeks
**Portfolio return: +56.27% · Alpha vs SPY: +46.08% · 7 stocks**
The highest alpha of any portfolio in the full backtest, and it only appears once you stop capping the holding period at 12 weeks:
| Ticker | Company | 15-Week Return |
|--------|---------|----------------|
| WDC | Western Digital | +188.2% |
| MU | Micron Technology | +185.7% |
| FSLR | First Solar | +34.4% |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | +31.3% |
| NEM | Newmont Corporation | -10.4% |
| B | Barrick Gold | -10.7% |
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines | -24.6% |
WDC and MU alone explain nearly all of the portfolio’s return. Both nearly tripled in value over the 15-week holding period.
### #2 — Top 10 · Streak 4 · Entry March 15, 2026 · Held 13 weeks
**Portfolio return: +53.02% · Alpha vs SPY: +41.91% · 8 stocks**
| Ticker | Company | 13-Week Return |
|--------|---------|----------------|
| DELL | Dell Technologies | +162.1% |
| MU | Micron Technology | +151.0% |
| WDC | Western Digital | +102.3% |
| FSLR | First Solar | +51.6% |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | +18.4% |
| NEM | Newmont Corporation | -15.6% |
| B | Barrick Gold | -15.9% |
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines | -29.8% |
The largest sample (8 observations) of the top three. DELL leads as the single highest contributor.
### #3 — Top 10 · Streak 6 · Entry March 8, 2026 · Held 14 weeks
**Portfolio return: +50.75% · Alpha vs SPY: +39.16% · 7 stocks**
| Ticker | Company | 14-Week Return |
|--------|---------|----------------|
| MU | Micron Technology | +179.6% |
| WDC | Western Digital | +149.5% |
| FSLR | First Solar | +40.0% |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor | +27.2% |
| B | Barrick Gold | -8.3% |
| NEM | Newmont Corporation | -9.3% |
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines | -23.4% |
MU’s individual contribution here (+179.6%) is the strongest single-stock result among all three top portfolios.
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## The Pattern Across All Three
Every one of the top 3 portfolios shares the exact same composition logic: **Technology names (MU, WDC, FSLR, TSM, sometimes DELL) carry the return. Basic Materials names (NEM, B, AEM) consistently detract — and the longer the holding period, the worse Gold performs relative to Tech.**
This is not coincidence. It reflects the macro environment of February–March 2026. The composite score correctly identified strong fundamentals in both groups during the tariff-driven volatility. But the market’s subsequent direction rewarded the Technology recovery and penalized Gold’s fading safe-haven demand as risk appetite returned — and that gap widened the longer the position was held.
**The lesson for reading NorthMark:** the composite score identifies quality and consistency — it does not predict macro rotation. A portfolio’s realized alpha depends on both the score’s accuracy and the sector environment that follows. Removing the holding cap made this dynamic fully visible for the first time: Gold’s underperformance against Tech kept compounding well past the 12-week mark that used to be our limit.
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## The Full Backtest — No Cap
*(See attached image — Full Backtest, Section A)*
With the holding cap removed, the table now extends to 15 weeks for the earliest entries. The clearest pattern: **streak 4, 5, and 6 in the Top 10 are the three strongest combinations at the longest available holding period**, with alpha between +32% and +46%. Notably, the alpha for these combinations keeps climbing from 12 to 13, 14, and 15 weeks — it has not yet peaked or reverted in the data we have.
Streak 7 and 8, which produced the strongest *short-term* signals in earlier weeks, plateau by comparison — their advantage is concentrated in the first 1-8 weeks rather than sustained over a full quarter.
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## Current Streaks — June 14, 2026
**B, NEM, FSLR, AEM, TSM** — 18 consecutive weeks in the Top 10. The full length of the dataset.
**MU** — streak 11. The composite score has validated Micron for 11 consecutive weeks.
**WDC** — streak 7. Just past the streak 4-6 zone that has produced every top-3 portfolio so far.
**NVDA** — streak 6. Currently inside the highest-alpha zone identified in the backtest.
**CFG** — streak 4. A Financial name entering signal territory for the first time — worth watching as a potential diversifier away from the Tech/Gold pattern that has defined every top portfolio so far.
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*NorthMark ranks 453 stocks weekly using a composite score across Growth, Valuation, Quality, and Momentum. All backtest prices sourced from Yahoo Finance adjusted close. Benchmark: SPY. Past results do not guarantee future returns. This is not investment advice.*
